Warmth across 600 years
Harvard researchers are adding nuance to our understanding of how modern and historical temperatures compare. Through their statistical model of Arctic temperatures and how they relate to instrumental and proxy records, Martin Tingley, a research associate in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, and Peter Huybers, professor of earth and planetary sciences, have shown that the warmest summers in the last two decades were unprecedented in six centuries. The work is described in paper published in the April 11 issue of Nature. “We call upon multiple proxies — including those derived from trees, ice cores, and lake sediments — to reconstruct temperature back through time using a Bayesian statistical approach,” Tingley said. “What we are trying to do is put statistical inference of past changes in temperature on a more solid and complete footing. “Saying this year is warmer than all other years included in the reconstruction is a very different thing...