Puzzle Answers And A Correction

First, I'm afraid I fell victim to one of the classic blunders—the most famous of which is never get in involved in a land war in Asia, but only slightly less well known is this: probability is not additive (as a couple astute Times readers have now pointed out). For example, if you have a 4-sided die, there's a 1/4 chance of rolling a specific number first try. If you roll again, is there a 2/4 chance, and after five rolls a 5/4 chance? Nope. Instead the math goes like this: • one roll of a d4: (4^1-3^1)/4^1=1/4=0.25 • two rolls of a d4: (4^2-3^2)/4^2=7/16=0.44 • three rolls of a d4: (4^3-3^3)/4^3=37/64=0.58 • four rolls of a d4: (4^4-3^4)/4^4=175/256=0.68 read more

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