London Murders: Stats Theory Shows Numbers Are Predictable
Leading statistician Professor David Spiegelhalter claims today that the number of murders in London last year was not out of the ordinary and followed a predictable pattern. Spiegelhalter's report, published today in Significance, the magazine of the Royal Statistical Society, argues that shocking headline numbers are not as surprising as one might think. Violence in London attracts headlines. After four people were murdered in separate incidents in London on July 10th, 2008, BBC correspondent Andy Tighe said "To have four fatal stabbings in one day could be a statistical freak." But could it? On July 28th thelondonpaper had the front-page headline: "London's murder count reaches 90". But Professor Spiegelhalter states that this number was predictable. read more