Putting the ‘estimate’ back in estimates
M. Granger Morgan wants to bring uncertainty back to energy forecasting. Morgan, a professor at Carnegie Mellon, has spent his career investigating climate change and the energy system and understands how difficult it is to account for the many variables that can affect gas and oil prices even 10 years into the future. Scientists routinely account for uncertainty in their estimates, but often the uncertainty is lost by the time reports and analyses make it to decision makers. There are a variety of reasons for this, Morgan said, among them the idea that precise forecasts make for more persuasive arguments and the belief that people can’t handle uncertainty. “I start talking about this and, ‘Ah, well, people can’t deal with uncertainty,’” Morgan said. “Well, people don’t get it quite right, but they do basically understand there is uncertainty.” People regularly manage weather forecasts that are accurate a few days into the future but grow...