Researchers measure accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence
Tuesday, July 15, 2014 - 09:30
in Mathematics & Economics
(Phys.org) —Two researchers have measured the accuracy of forecasts given by two teams within Canada's Intelligence Assessment Secretariat (IAS), a group that provides government leaders with intelligence information regarding the Middle East and Africa. David Mandel with Defence Research and Development and Alan Barnes, formerly with IAS report in a paper they've had published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on their findings and offer opinions on the overall quality of such intelligence gathering based on what they learned.