The physics of solar flares could help scientists predict imminent outbursts
Space weather forecasting is a guessing game. Predictions of outbursts from the sun are typically based on the amount of activity observed on the sun’s roiling surface, without accounting for the specific processes behind the blasts. But a new technique could help predict the violent eruptions of radiation known as solar flares based on the physics behind them, researchers report in the July 31 Science. When applied to old data, the method anticipated several powerful flares, although it missed some as well. Radiation released in solar flares and associated eruptions of charged particles, or plasma,can be harmful. This space weather can disrupt radio communications, throw off satellites, take down power grids and endanger astronauts (SN: 9/11/17). More accurate forecasts could allow operators to switch off sensitive systems or otherwise make preparations to mitigate negative effects. Current prediction methods rely on tracking flare-linked phenomena such as large, complex sunspots — dark regions on the...