Pollsters struggle to explain failures of US presidential forecasts

Wednesday, November 9, 2016 - 20:01 in Mathematics & Economics

Most surveys did not predict Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton.Nature News doi: 10.1038/nature.2016.20968

Read the whole article on News @ Nature

More sources from other sites

Clinton campaign blames James Comey for loss to Donald Trump
from UPI
Fri, 11 Nov 2016, 18:02:01 UTC

Hillary Clinton's full concession speech
from UPI
Thu, 10 Nov 2016, 11:31:23 UTC
What a Trump win means for U.S. health care
from CBC: Health
Thu, 10 Nov 2016, 10:31:32 UTC
Clinton concedes, hopes Trump will be 'a successful president for all'
from UPI
Wed, 9 Nov 2016, 17:32:08 UTC
Hillary Clinton surpasses Donald Trump in popular vote total
from UPI
Wed, 9 Nov 2016, 17:01:23 UTC
Donald Trump to be nation's 45th president; Hillary Clinton concedes
from UPI
Wed, 9 Nov 2016, 9:02:53 UTC
Hillary Clinton concedes; Donald Trump to be nation's 45th president
from UPI
Wed, 9 Nov 2016, 8:02:00 UTC
Trump takes Florida, Ohio, Clinton claims Virginia and Colorado
from UPI
Wed, 9 Nov 2016, 4:51:21 UTC
Trump takes Ohio, Clinton claims Virginia and Colorado
from UPI
Wed, 9 Nov 2016, 3:51:27 UTC
Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump locked in razor-thin race
from UPI
Wed, 9 Nov 2016, 3:21:34 UTC
Battleground states all still too close to call for Clinton, Trump
from UPI
Wed, 9 Nov 2016, 1:01:20 UTC
Donald Trump wins Indiana Kentucky, Hillary Clinton nabs Vermont
from UPI
Wed, 9 Nov 2016, 0:31:18 UTC
Clinton votes; topless women protest Trump at his NYC polling place
from UPI
Tue, 8 Nov 2016, 15:31:20 UTC
42M votes cast early as Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump face Election Day finale
from UPI
Tue, 8 Nov 2016, 11:01:18 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Clinton holds slim lead over Trump in last poll before election day
from UPI
Tue, 8 Nov 2016, 5:01:31 UTC
Clinton, Trump hit battleground states in final push before election
from UPI
Tue, 8 Nov 2016, 0:31:34 UTC
UPI/CVoter state poll: Three states key to Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump winning election
from UPI
Mon, 7 Nov 2016, 18:01:30 UTC
UPI/CVoter swing state poll: Trump must run the table to defeat Clinton
from UPI
Mon, 7 Nov 2016, 17:31:35 UTC
Clinton, Trump campaigns fan out in final election push
from UPI
Mon, 7 Nov 2016, 16:01:25 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton holds slim lead over Donald Trump on eve of election
from UPI
Mon, 7 Nov 2016, 15:01:32 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 3.3 points
from UPI
Sun, 6 Nov 2016, 18:21:18 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 1.25 points
from UPI
Sat, 5 Nov 2016, 21:51:21 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Clinton leads Trump by 1.25 points
from UPI
Sat, 5 Nov 2016, 17:51:16 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Clinton, Trump remain locked in dead heat
from UPI
Fri, 4 Nov 2016, 15:41:18 UTC
Majority want GOP Congress if Hillary Clinton wins presidency
from UPI
Fri, 4 Nov 2016, 15:11:17 UTC
Clinton doubles ad budget in final week of presidential campaign
from UPI
Thu, 3 Nov 2016, 15:01:32 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Clinton, Trump virtually tied with less than a week to go
from UPI
Thu, 3 Nov 2016, 15:01:31 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Clinton has less than 1 point lead over Trump
from UPI
Wed, 2 Nov 2016, 15:31:42 UTC
FBI disclosure of Clinton probe broke with prior practice; summer inquiries kept quiet
from UPI
Wed, 2 Nov 2016, 11:31:23 UTC
Poll: Clinton supporters less likely to respect Trump supporters than vice versa
from UPI
Tue, 1 Nov 2016, 18:01:22 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Clinton, Trump nearly tied a week before election
from UPI
Tue, 1 Nov 2016, 12:01:20 UTC
UPI/CVoter state polls: Donald Trump improves, but Hillary Clinton would win Electoral College
from UPI
Mon, 31 Oct 2016, 15:21:19 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump shrinks to .47
from UPI
Mon, 31 Oct 2016, 14:21:17 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Clinton's lead slips below 2 percent
from UPI
Fri, 28 Oct 2016, 16:01:29 UTC
Clinton rakes in $101M in October, holds big cash advantage over Trump
from UPI
Fri, 28 Oct 2016, 15:31:25 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 3 points
from UPI
Thu, 27 Oct 2016, 14:01:15 UTC
Policy Prescriptions: Clinton and Trump on health care
from AP Health
Thu, 27 Oct 2016, 8:21:18 UTC
Hillary Clinton enjoys wide support among LGBT community
from UPI
Wed, 26 Oct 2016, 15:01:34 UTC
Poll: Clinton appeared more 'presidential' as debates wore on
from UPI
Tue, 25 Oct 2016, 17:01:42 UTC
Trump swings through all-important Florida as early voting gets underway
from UPI
Tue, 25 Oct 2016, 15:01:32 UTC
Elizabeth Warren to Trump at N.H. Clinton rally: 'Women have had it with guys like you'
from UPI
Mon, 24 Oct 2016, 20:31:22 UTC
Trump camp: Report Hillary Clinton ally donated to FBI official's wife 'deeply disturbing'
from UPI
Mon, 24 Oct 2016, 17:01:26 UTC
UPI/CVoter state polls: Donald Trump gains ground, but Hillary Clinton would win Electoral College
from UPI
Mon, 24 Oct 2016, 16:31:30 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump narrows to 3.07 points
from UPI
Mon, 24 Oct 2016, 12:01:29 UTC
Cardinal Dolan: Clinton, Trump were courteous off stage at Al Smith Dinner
from UPI
Fri, 21 Oct 2016, 18:01:27 UTC
Twitter conversations on abortion, economy rise after Clinton vs. Trump debate
from CBC: Technology & Science
Fri, 21 Oct 2016, 17:51:16 UTC
Israelis vastly prefer Clinton to Trump in new poll
from UPI
Fri, 21 Oct 2016, 16:01:29 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Most minorities favor Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump
from UPI
Fri, 21 Oct 2016, 10:01:21 UTC
Trump vs. Clinton at the Al Smith Dinner: The best jokes and jabs
from UPI
Fri, 21 Oct 2016, 4:31:21 UTC
Trump vs. Clinton at the Al Smith Dinner: The best jokes and jabs
from UPI
Fri, 21 Oct 2016, 4:02:02 UTC
Clinton, Trump face off again at Al Smith Dinner
from UPI
Fri, 21 Oct 2016, 1:01:18 UTC
Where Trump and Clinton stand on climate change
from CBSNews - Science
Thu, 20 Oct 2016, 21:01:47 UTC
Clinton, Trump to face off again at Al Smith Dinner
from UPI
Thu, 20 Oct 2016, 18:31:17 UTC
Polls: Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump in final debate
from UPI
Thu, 20 Oct 2016, 16:31:18 UTC
Hillary Clinton delights with white pantsuit at final debate
from UPI
Thu, 20 Oct 2016, 16:01:17 UTC
Presidential debate: Donald Trump may refuse to accept a Hillary Clinton victory
from UPI
Thu, 20 Oct 2016, 12:04:01 UTC
Presidential debate: Trump says he may refuse to accept a Clinton victory
from UPI
Thu, 20 Oct 2016, 4:01:38 UTC
Presidential debate: Clinton, Trump stick to the issues
from UPI
Thu, 20 Oct 2016, 2:01:19 UTC
Hillary Clinton says 'clean energy economy' will create millions of jobs; can it?
from UPI
Wed, 19 Oct 2016, 17:01:32 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Clinton leads Trump by 4.88 points going into final debate
from UPI
Wed, 19 Oct 2016, 12:31:27 UTC
Trump v. Clinton: How to stream the last presidential debate
from Physorg
Tue, 18 Oct 2016, 18:31:24 UTC
How Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump would address 12 key issues
from UPI
Tue, 18 Oct 2016, 14:51:15 UTC
UPI/CVoter state polls: Hillary Clinton maintains Electoral College edge over Donald Trump
from UPI
Mon, 17 Oct 2016, 17:31:24 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 4.69 points
from UPI
Mon, 17 Oct 2016, 15:01:25 UTC
Trump posts $100M fundraising haul in Sept., still trails Clinton
from UPI
Sat, 15 Oct 2016, 22:51:21 UTC
Donald Trump uses Wikileaks emails for attack on Hillary Clinton
from UPI
Fri, 14 Oct 2016, 16:31:24 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 5 points
from UPI
Fri, 14 Oct 2016, 14:31:20 UTC
Michelle Obama attacks Trump as 'predatory' amid new allegations
from UPI
Thu, 13 Oct 2016, 18:11:20 UTC
Trump pulling out of Virginia, relying on four-state strategy
from UPI
Thu, 13 Oct 2016, 16:51:26 UTC
Washington Post dotes on Clinton in endorsement editorial
from UPI
Thu, 13 Oct 2016, 15:21:17 UTC
On the issues: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump differ on what's 'fair' in tax plans
from UPI
Thu, 13 Oct 2016, 10:02:38 UTC
Donald Trump lashes out at 'rigged' debate commission
from UPI
Wed, 12 Oct 2016, 21:42:55 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton's lead grows to 6.4 points over Donald Trump
from UPI
Wed, 12 Oct 2016, 14:52:19 UTC
Ratings for second presidential debate drop sharply
from UPI
Tue, 11 Oct 2016, 15:01:34 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton gains as Donald Trump continues to slide
from UPI
Tue, 11 Oct 2016, 12:31:28 UTC
Debate 2016: What Goes on in Your Brain When People Invade Your Space
from Live Science
Tue, 11 Oct 2016, 0:51:28 UTC
On opioid epidemic, Clinton offers more specifics than Trump
from AP Health
Mon, 10 Oct 2016, 18:21:15 UTC
UPI/CVoter state polls: Hillary Clinton has Electoral College edge over Donald Trump
from UPI
Mon, 10 Oct 2016, 15:51:19 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton pulls into 5-point lead over Donald Trump
from UPI
Mon, 10 Oct 2016, 13:51:18 UTC
Presidential debate: Trump threatens to throw Clinton 'in jail'
from UPI
Mon, 10 Oct 2016, 1:51:11 UTC
Watch live: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump go into 2nd presidential debate amid scandal
from UPI
Mon, 10 Oct 2016, 0:51:13 UTC
Donald Trump holds news conference with Bill Clinton accusers ahead of debate
from UPI
Mon, 10 Oct 2016, 0:51:12 UTC
Trump holds press conference with Bill Clinton accusers ahead of debate
from UPI
Mon, 10 Oct 2016, 0:21:12 UTC
Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump go into second presidential debate amid scandal
from UPI
Sun, 9 Oct 2016, 13:31:15 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Clinton retakes lead with post-debate bump
from UPI
Sat, 8 Oct 2016, 18:01:30 UTC
Humane Society endorses Clinton, criticizes Trump children's big game hunting
from UPI
Thu, 6 Oct 2016, 19:53:47 UTC
Donald Trump backs off praise for Vladimir Putin
from UPI
Thu, 6 Oct 2016, 15:02:05 UTC
Will Hillary Clinton's ground game outdo Donald Trump's social media strategy?
from UPI
Thu, 6 Oct 2016, 14:02:48 UTC
Can Donald Trump feel your pain?
from UPI
Thu, 6 Oct 2016, 12:31:29 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Donald Trump's lead over Hillary Clinton tightens to less than a point
from UPI
Wed, 5 Oct 2016, 15:33:34 UTC
Clinton's answer to girl about female image: Trump 'can't be taken seriously anymore'
from UPI
Tue, 4 Oct 2016, 21:51:15 UTC
UPI/CVoter state polls: Donald Trump gains support in all but 5 states
from UPI
Mon, 3 Oct 2016, 18:51:57 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 2.5 points
from UPI
Mon, 3 Oct 2016, 15:21:14 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Trump regains lead over Clinton as September ends
from UPI
Sat, 1 Oct 2016, 18:21:09 UTC
Debate commission says Trump's debate microphone was faulty
from UPI
Fri, 30 Sep 2016, 20:21:10 UTC
Hillary Clinton seeks to create National Volunteer Reserve
from UPI
Fri, 30 Sep 2016, 17:21:13 UTC
Hillary Clinton proposes capping childcare costs at 10% of income
from UPI
Thu, 29 Sep 2016, 16:31:54 UTC
Why the pundits are wrong about Hillary Clinton dominating the debate
from UPI
Thu, 29 Sep 2016, 14:35:23 UTC
Clinton Outlines Plans for Health Care in Leading Medical Journal
from Live Science
Thu, 29 Sep 2016, 3:11:17 UTC
UPI/CVoter: Hillary Clinton regains slight lead in first post-debate poll
from UPI
Wed, 28 Sep 2016, 14:31:21 UTC
First round of Clinton-Trump drew largest debate audience in U.S. history
from UPI
Tue, 27 Sep 2016, 23:21:11 UTC
Early returns show first Clinton-Trump debate had largest audience in history
from UPI
Tue, 27 Sep 2016, 19:21:25 UTC
Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump health plans differ on uninsured, cost
from UPI
Tue, 27 Sep 2016, 17:21:27 UTC
Drop the mic: Trump, Clinton spar over microphone during debate
from UPI
Tue, 27 Sep 2016, 16:22:43 UTC
CNN poll: Clinton winner of first debate with Trump
from UPI
Tue, 27 Sep 2016, 14:21:58 UTC
Donald Trump loses 'battle of the sexes' to Hillary Clinton
from UPI
Tue, 27 Sep 2016, 13:21:23 UTC
Hillary Clinton's name misspelled on debate ticket
from UPI
Tue, 27 Sep 2016, 10:52:19 UTC
Hillary Clinton's name misspelled on debate ticket
from UPI
Tue, 27 Sep 2016, 5:32:00 UTC
Presidential debate: Clinton, Trump trade barbs over economy, birther movement
from UPI
Tue, 27 Sep 2016, 4:01:29 UTC
Presidential debate: Clinton, Trump open sparring on economy
from UPI
Tue, 27 Sep 2016, 1:31:19 UTC
UPI/CVoter state polls: Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton in Electoral College
from UPI
Mon, 26 Sep 2016, 18:31:17 UTC
Hillary Clinton to get first question in presidential debate
from UPI
Mon, 26 Sep 2016, 16:31:25 UTC
First presidential debate: How to watch, fast facts, what to expect
from UPI
Mon, 26 Sep 2016, 16:01:26 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump in virtual tie heading into first debate
from UPI
Mon, 26 Sep 2016, 14:31:22 UTC
Five things Hillary Clinton must do win the debates
from UPI
Mon, 26 Sep 2016, 13:01:25 UTC
More than 100 million expected to watch Monday's presidential debate
from UPI
Sun, 25 Sep 2016, 19:11:18 UTC
Top Clinton aide Cheryl Mills granted partial immunity in email probe
from UPI
Sat, 24 Sep 2016, 18:01:17 UTC
CBSN and Instagram partner for presidential debates
from CBSNews - Science
Fri, 23 Sep 2016, 18:31:17 UTC
New Clinton ad targets parents of girls using Trump clips
from UPI
Fri, 23 Sep 2016, 14:21:58 UTC
LA Times endorses Hillary Clinton, calls Trump 'demagogue'
from UPI
Fri, 23 Sep 2016, 13:51:22 UTC
Hillary Clinton clears campaign schedule in favor of debate prep
from UPI
Thu, 22 Sep 2016, 21:31:16 UTC
Hillary Clinton proposes 65% top rate for estate tax
from UPI
Thu, 22 Sep 2016, 21:01:58 UTC
House committee votes to hold Clinton IT aide in contempt
from UPI
Thu, 22 Sep 2016, 20:00:43 UTC
Donald Trump may be the only Republican who can handle the media onslaught
from UPI
Thu, 22 Sep 2016, 12:31:24 UTC
Hillary Clinton promises economic equality for disabled Americans
from UPI
Thu, 22 Sep 2016, 0:21:18 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton holds 1.18% lead over Donald Trump
from UPI
Wed, 21 Sep 2016, 16:01:25 UTC
On the issues: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump urge more school funding, differ on use
from UPI
Wed, 21 Sep 2016, 12:31:21 UTC
On the issues: Clinton, Trump call for more federal funding in education, differ on use
from UPI
Wed, 21 Sep 2016, 10:01:16 UTC
First debate between Clinton and Trump to focus on economy, security, vision for the future
from UPI
Tue, 20 Sep 2016, 17:31:30 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton reclaims slight lead over Donald Trump
from UPI
Tue, 20 Sep 2016, 14:31:29 UTC
RFK daughter: Ex-President George H.W. Bush plans to vote for Hillary Clinton
from UPI
Tue, 20 Sep 2016, 14:01:26 UTC
Hillary Clinton calls Trump, Putin connection a 'bromance' on 'Tonight Show'
from UPI
Tue, 20 Sep 2016, 13:04:42 UTC
Hillary Clinton recalls her generation's equality struggle in essay to millennials
from UPI
Mon, 19 Sep 2016, 16:31:33 UTC
Clinton to make push with millennial voters at speech in Philadelphia
from UPI
Mon, 19 Sep 2016, 16:01:47 UTC
Poll: 75% of voters plan to watch first Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump debate
from UPI
Mon, 19 Sep 2016, 16:01:42 UTC
Obama's plea to black voters: Not backing Hillary Clinton an 'insult to my legacy'
from UPI
Sun, 18 Sep 2016, 16:41:18 UTC
Trump says Clinton's Secret Service should disarm to 'see what happens to her'
from UPI
Sat, 17 Sep 2016, 18:41:15 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Donald Trump holds lead over Hillary Clinton for 11th day
from UPI
Sat, 17 Sep 2016, 12:21:21 UTC
Bernie Sanders advises Hillary Clinton: Stick to the issues
from UPI
Fri, 16 Sep 2016, 17:31:23 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Donald Trump maintains steady 1 point lead over Hillary Clinton
from UPI
Fri, 16 Sep 2016, 16:01:26 UTC
Clinton's and Trump's Health: 5 Common Health Issues for People Their Age
from Live Science
Thu, 15 Sep 2016, 17:51:23 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton pull back into virtual tie
from UPI
Thu, 15 Sep 2016, 10:31:35 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Donald Trump maintains 3-point lead over Hillary Clinton
from UPI
Wed, 14 Sep 2016, 17:01:21 UTC
House GOP vows penalty for Hillary Clinton aide who ignored subpoena
from UPI
Tue, 13 Sep 2016, 17:11:21 UTC
In wake of Clinton's pneumonia, both candidates pledge transparency on health
from UPI
Tue, 13 Sep 2016, 16:31:22 UTC
With Clinton out sick, Trump focuses on her 'deplorables' comment, not pneumonia
from UPI
Tue, 13 Sep 2016, 15:31:20 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Donald Trump widens lead over Hillary Clinton to 3 points
from UPI
Mon, 12 Sep 2016, 16:01:23 UTC
On the issues: Clinton and Trump take familiar partisan positions on healthcare
from UPI
Mon, 12 Sep 2016, 10:01:25 UTC
Hillary Clinton 'overheated' at 9/11 service, leaves abruptly
from UPI
Sun, 11 Sep 2016, 16:31:17 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Donald Trump widens lead over Hillary Clinton to 2 points
from UPI
Sun, 11 Sep 2016, 12:31:23 UTC
Hillary Clinton denounces some Trump supporters as 'a basket of deplorables'
from UPI
Sat, 10 Sep 2016, 18:21:21 UTC
UPI/CVoter: Donald Trump maintains 1 point lead over Hillary Clinton
from UPI
Sat, 10 Sep 2016, 18:21:17 UTC
Poll: Majority expect Hillary Clinton to win first debate
from UPI
Fri, 9 Sep 2016, 18:31:17 UTC
Hillary Clinton describes overcoming sexism in college to Humans of New York
from UPI
Fri, 9 Sep 2016, 15:01:30 UTC
Colin Powell's note to Hillary Clinton offered tips on private email use
from UPI
Thu, 8 Sep 2016, 16:31:22 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Donald Trump pushes ahead of Hillary Clinton
from UPI
Thu, 8 Sep 2016, 15:01:38 UTC
On foreign policy, Clinton seeks steadiness, Trump favors clean break
from UPI
Thu, 8 Sep 2016, 2:21:13 UTC
Hillary Clinton tops Donald Trump in August fundraising totals
from UPI
Wed, 7 Sep 2016, 22:01:14 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton has 2-point lead over Donald Trump
from UPI
Wed, 7 Sep 2016, 17:01:26 UTC
Hillary Clinton releases list of endorsements from 95 retired generals, admirals
from UPI
Wed, 7 Sep 2016, 15:31:15 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Most say Donald Trump better than Hillary Clinton on terrorism
from UPI
Wed, 7 Sep 2016, 14:01:19 UTC
Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump trade barbs over Trump's Mexico trip
from UPI
Tue, 6 Sep 2016, 16:31:26 UTC
In press conference, Hillary Clinton accuses Russia of election meddling
from UPI
Tue, 6 Sep 2016, 14:01:19 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton holds lead over Donald Trump
from UPI
Tue, 6 Sep 2016, 13:01:22 UTC
Biden, Kaine in Pittsburgh as Trump, Clinton campaign in Ohio on Labor Day
from UPI
Mon, 5 Sep 2016, 19:31:14 UTC
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton edges out Donald Trump with 3.85-point lead
from UPI
Mon, 5 Sep 2016, 16:01:14 UTC
Pence gives no further details on Trump's immigration plan
from UPI
Sun, 4 Sep 2016, 15:21:13 UTC

166 more sources Click

Latest Science Newsletter

Get the latest and most popular science news articles of the week in your Inbox! It's free!

(e) Science News

Pollsters struggle to explain failures of US presidential forecasts

Read the whole article on News @ Nature

More from News @ Nature

Latest Science Newsletter

Check out our next project, Biology.Net

Latest Science News Articles

From other science news sites